The impact of price insulation on world wheat markets during COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

Application of Benford's law in agricultural production statistics

The importance of food supply throughout the world has once again shown its significance in the COVID-19 pandemic period. A continuous food supply is possible with correct agricultural programming. An effective agricultural product programming can only be possible by obtaining precise agricultural data. However, it is very difficult to gather accurate agricultural production statistics from all over the world and confirm their accuracy. In this study, the compatibility of the production statistics of six important agricultural products (wheat, rice, potato, onion, banana, apple) which had been collected from local sources, and had published as opensource by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, with Benford's law was examined for the first time. Data for the last two decades are used to ignore the impact of annual fluctuations. The compatibility of theoretically expected and observed data was tested by Chi-square (X2) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) tests. Although inconsistencies were found in some data by examining the numbers in the first, second, and first two digits, in general, the MAD test results gave a mostly concordant result.

International markets impact on wheat prices in the republic of North Macedonia

The production of wheat, as one of the elementary and strategic nutrition crops, in North Macedonia is insufficient and cannot meet the national demands, which results with negative trade balance with import of 74,937 tons of wheat valued at 17.9 million EUR. The main goal of this paper is to analyse the influence of international markets on wheat prices in the Republic of North Macedonia. Data on the purchase price of wheat have been analysed using statistical methods and models from December 2009 to December 2021. A total of 145 monthly time series with data on the purchase price of wheat for Macedonia, the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia have been analysed and compared. The Pearson correlation coefficient shows a relatively high relationship and mutual dependence of purchase prices in Macedonia, compared to prices in the EU, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia (over 65%). The purchase prices of wheat in Macedonia have the highest relationship and mutual dependence with the price movement in Serbia (0.78), and the lowest with the price movement in the EU (0.66). The estimated lag length of the autoregressive process (AIC, BIC, FPE and HQIC tests), on average shows 2 lags (months) later time reaction of the wheat prices in Macedonia with the comparison countries countries. The forecasting model (Granger causality test) shows that time series of wheat prices can be convenient for forecasting wheat prices in Macedonia. As of October 2021, the model clearly shows the impact of food economic crisis and unexpected, immediate rise of wheat prices as result of the post Covid-19 and Ukraine war crisis. This research and analysis model can provide significant information for the wheat price trends, forecasting and markets shock, as management and decision-making tools for producers, traders and processors, but also for the policy makers.

An inaugural survey of cereal, oilseed and vegetable crop diseases in the Yukon Territory in 2020

Various kinds of field crops growing on two commercial farms in the Whitehorse area of the southern Yukon Territory were surveyed for diseases in summer 2020 by staff of the Agriculture Branch of the Government of Yukon. They included barley, wheat, canola, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, potatoes and turnips. Fields were visited one or more times during July and August. The incidence and severity of diseases were visually assessed on a crop-by-crop basis and samples were collected for laboratory analysis of the pathogens present, if any. Both infectious and non-infectious diseases were present on most crops. The infectious diseases were caused by various species of plant pathogenic bacteria and fungi that were common on these crops growing in other areas of Canada. INTRODUCTION AND METHODS: The 2020 field crop disease survey is believed to be the first organized study of its kind on agricultural crops in the Territory. In his book, "An Annotated Index of Plant Diseases in Canada . . . ", I.L. Conners lists over 300 records of plant diseases on trees, shrubs, herbs and grasses in the Yukon that were published by individuals who were surveying forests and native vegetation mainly for federal government departments, universities and other agencies (Conners 1967). The objectives of the 2020 survey were: (1) to determine the kinds and levels of diseases on selected Yukon crops, (2) to identify the major pathogen species attacking Yukon crops, and (3) to use the results to plan future surveillance activities aimed at helping producers to improve their current disease management programs. All of the fields included in the 2020 survey were situated on two commercial farms, which were designated as Farm #1 and #2, in the Whitehorse area in the southern Yukon (Fig. 1). The crops surveyed included cereals (barley and wheat), oilseeds (canola) and vegetables (beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, potatoes and turnips). Fields were visited one or more times in the mid- to late growing season (July/August) at a time when damage from diseases was most noticeable. Symptoms were visually assessed on a crop-by-crop basis by determining their incidence and severity. Incidence was represented by the percentage of plants, leaves, heads, kernels, etc., damaged in the target crop, while severity was estimated to be the proportion of the leaf, fruit, head, root/canopy area, etc., affected by a specific disease as follows: Proportion of the canopy affected based on a 0-4 rating scale, where: 0 = no disease symptoms, 1 = 1-10% of the crop canopy showing symptoms;2 = 11-25% showing symptoms, 3 = 26- 50% showing symptoms, and 4 = > 50% showing symptoms. Photographs of affected plants were taken and sent to plant pathologists across Western Canada for their opinions on causation. Where possible, representative samples of plants with disease symptoms were packaged and sent to the Alberta Plant Health Lab (APHL) in Edmonton, AB for diagnostic analyses. Background information, such as the general cultural practices and cropping history, was obtained from the producers wherever possible. GPS coordinates were obtained for each field to enable future mapping Cereals: Individual fields of barley (11 ha) and wheat (30 ha) located at Farm #1 were surveyed. The barley was a two-row forage cultivar 'CDC Maverick', while the wheat was an unspecified cultivar of Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) Wheat. Plant samples were taken along a W-shaped transect for a total of five sampling points for the barley field (< 20 ha) and ten sampling points for the wheat field (> 20 ha). The first visit, which occurred on July 30, involved visual inspection and destructive sampling wherein plants were collected and removed from the field for a detailed disease assessment at a lab space in Whitehorse. There, the roots were rinsed off and the plants were examined for disease symptoms. The second visit to these fields, which occurred on August 27, only involved visual examination of the standing crop. Oilseeds: A single 40 ha field of Polish canola (cv. 'Synergy') was examined o

COVID-19 and food security: impact on wheat

The new coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019, turned into a major global pandemic and has caused many deaths around the world. Covid-19 pandemic has adversely affected every aspect from economy, education to health system. During Covid-19 pandemic, access to foodstuffs has become even more important, and some countries have imposed restrictions on exports of basic food items for fear of food shortages. These restrictions and quotas are feared to disrupt the flows of trade for staple foods such as wheat, corn and rice, which has deepened the concerns for food security. This study was conducted to examine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wheat price, production and trade and to review the policies of wheat exporter countries. According to the results of the study, Covid-19 did not cause fear in wheat markets, and no shortages of wheat are expected in the short term. Although countries have reduced the measures they have taken as of May, uncertainties regarding food safety still persist for the coming years. World economies have shrunk significantly as a result of the drastic measures they have taken against covid-19, which could worsen the situation for low income households.

Agri-food trade in 2020

The year 2020 marked one of the biggest recessions in global economic activity and world trade. During this period, the EU economy contracted by 6% and its international trade followed a similar downward trend - EU exports of goods decreased by 9% and imports by 12%, compared to 2019. By contrast, EU international trade in agri-food reported a slight growth. Over the course of 2020, the value of EU agri-food exports increased to 184.3 billion (a growth of 1.4% compared to 2019), while the value of imports rose to 122.2 billion (a growth of 0.5%). As a result, the EU further reinforced its leading position among the world's biggest exporters. On the import side, the EU has become the third largest importer after the US and China. The contraction in global trade was accompanied by increasing prices of food, including commodities as evidenced by the increases reflected in the FAO Global Price Index. The EU exports a wide range of products from all parts of the value chain which demonstrates the competitiveness of the EU agri-food sector in a variety of product classes ranging from commodities to highly processed food industry products. EU imports, on the other hand, are clearly dominated by basic agricultural food and feed products, which represent about 75% of all imports. Looking at product categories, exports of pig meat and wheat strongly contributed to the increase in EU overall agri-food exports. Conversely, spirits and liqueurs as well as wine are among the sectors that experienced a difficult period for a number of reasons (e.g. the COVID pandemic, US retaliatory tariffs). The growth in EU agri-food imports was mainly driven by increases in import values for oilseeds, other than soya beans;fatty acids and waxes, palm oil, fruit including tropical fruit, and soya beans. China, Switzerland and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were the major growth destinations for EU agri-food exports in 2020. The value of EU exports fell most to the United States, Turkey, Singapore and Japan. In terms of imports, Canada grew significantly as a source for the EU imports. By contrast, EU imports declined most in value from the United Kingdom, Ukraine and the United States. In 2020, the UK has become the EU's most important partner in agri-food trade, with a share of 23% in total EU agri-food exports and 13% in total imports. With EU exports and imports both decreasing, its trade surplus with the US increased by 2% when compared to 2019, as falls on the imports side were stronger. China became the top destination for US agri-food exports. EU agri-food exports to China were primarily driven by continued record high sales of pig meat which increased by 74%. Pig meat and meat offal - the latter mainly comprised of products originating from pigs - accounted for over 40% of EU exports to China in 2020, demonstrating the importance of this market for the pig meat sector. Brazil's exports to China continued to increase in 2020, absorbing 35% of its total agri-food exports. Combined agri-food exports from Brazil to the EU and the US now account for half of Brazilian exports to China. In 2020, Brazil supplied 50% of extra-EU demand for soya beans and 40% for oilcakes. Wheat continued to be the leading EU export product to Africa with a 23% share of the EU's total export basket, whereas cocoa beans dominate in the EU imports from Africa, with the same share of 23%. Most African countries benefit from duty-free, quota-free access to the EU market under the "Everything But Arms" scheme and for many of them Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) or other trade agreements with the EU are applied, encouraging regional cooperation and trade. In 2020, the EU applied 45 free trade agreements (FTAs) with 77 partners. The share of agri-food trade under preferential agreements is also expanding and in 2021, it accounted for 31% and 41% of total EU agri-food exports and imports, respectively. The value of EU agri-food trade under preferential agreements expanded more in relative terms compared to total EU agri-food trade. EU agri-food ex

Agrarian Perspectives XXX. Sources of competitiveness under pandemic and environmental shocks, Proceedings of the 30th International Scientific Conference, Prague, Czech Republic, 15-16 September 2021

These proceedings contain 31 articles on the bioeconomy during the COVID-19 pandemic, discussing topics in connection to: agricultural economics, trade, market competitiveness, agribusiness, prices, and consumer attitudes;tourism and ecotourism;milk production;wheat production;environmental protection in response to infrastructural and climate change;food production;agricultural policy;Twitter communications;and other related topics.

Export restrictions under the pandemic shock: implications for the competitiveness of wheat production in Russia

As a wheat exporter, Russia ranks first in the world. Almost half of domestic wheat production is exported due to its competitiveness characterized by the relatively high level of comparative advantage. According to the study in the context of export parity and significant export volumes, domestic wheat prices follow world market prices and largely depend on major importers' demand. Global wheat prices have been rising consistently over the past months caused by the recovery in Chinese economy, adverse weather conditions, disruptions in food value chains and liquidity injections in the USA and EU economies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To restrain the rise in domestic prices, Russian government decided to introduced a floating export duty on wheat. This mechanism in the context of high world grain prices, economic stagnation, shrinking disposable incomes and increased risks of further devaluation of the national currency would lead to deterioration of the financial and economic situation, reduction of investment opportunities and technological lagging of Russian wheat producers behind their competitors in the world market. In this respect, Russian government efforts should be focused on increasing production and improving the competitiveness of wheat instead of restricting exports. A comprehensive set of measures regulating the wheat market also implies subsidizing wheat consumers, support for the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups of the population. Such approaches would support grain consumers while respecting the interests of producers and exporters, thereby helping to achieve the national agri-food export target of USD 45 billion in the coming ten years.

Evaluating the contribution of synthetic fungicides to cereal plant health and CO2 reduction targets against the backdrop of the increasingly complex regulatory environment in Europe. (Special Issue: On the topic of plant health in a one health context.)

The global COVID pandemic has impacted the world in ways and at a scale that few could have predicted, with many industries severely disrupted. Despite this, crops were sown and harvested, food was produced and agriculture continued to function, albeit it with many logistical challenges. Plant health lies at the heart of preventing crop losses through a combination of varietal resistance and agronomic practices. In the case of foliar plant diseases in wheat, varietal resistance plays a key role, but the use of synthetic fungicides is essential to minimize crop losses. European arable production faces a dilemma: how to contribute and maintain global food supplies but at the same time decrease emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), reduce inputs potentially harmful to biodiversity, society and the environment while ensuring no more land is brought into production. Throughout history, major disruptions in society have led to big steps in agricultural innovation. Presently, the major disruptive forces in Europe are not just a result of the COVID pandemic but the increasingly urgent need to address climate change. Within the European Green Deal, the Farm-to-Fork strategy is in place to help achieve climate neutrality by 2050, aiming for a reduction of GHG emissions of 55% by 2030. To achieve this, there will need to be a major adjustment to how food is produced, a realignment in plant health strategies and accelerated innovation across the agricultural sector. This paper aims to evaluate how synthetic fungicides presently contribute to plant health (mainly wheat) and food production as well as the management of GHG emissions. In addition, it explores the future challenges and prospects for their positive contribution in achieving global food security alongside emerging innovative technologies.

Lectin from Triticum vulgaris (WGA) Inhibits Infection with SARS-CoV-2 and Its Variants of Concern Alpha and Beta.

Even in the face of global vaccination campaigns, there is still an urgent need for effective antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 and its rapidly spreading variants. Several natural compounds show potential as antiviral substances and have the advantages of broad availabilities and large therapeutic windows. Here, we report that lectin from Triticum vulgaris (Wheat Germ Agglutinin) displays antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 and its major Variants of Concern (VoC), Alpha and Beta. In Vero B4 cells, WGA potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection with an IC50 of <10 ng/mL. WGA is effective upon preincubation with the virus or when added during infection. Pull-down assays demonstrate direct binding of WGA to SARS-CoV-2, further strengthening the hypothesis that inhibition of viral entry by neutralizing free virions might be the mode of action behind its antiviral effect. Furthermore, WGA exhibits antiviral activity against human coronavirus OC43, but not against other non-coronaviruses causing respiratory tract infections. Finally, WGA inhibits infection of the lung cell line Calu-3 with wild type and VoC viruses with comparable IC50 values. Altogether, our data indicate that topical administration of WGA might be effective for prophylaxis or treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infections.